Sarah Longwell's "How to Eat an Elephant"

Sarah Longwell has a reputation among political nerds for her endless appetite for focus groups. Hundreds of hours of listening to voters has given her a special insight into how Trump took over the Republican Party and, perhaps, how opponents of Trump might have a chance of winning back his voters.

One of Longwell's first jobs was working for a Republican consultant, but she was early to speak out against nominating Trump in 2016. After Trump's victory in that election, she turned to focus groups as a way to understand how Trump had convinced so many voters that he was the leader America needed. There was no denying that Trump was a political phenomenon and a turnout machine. For example, in the Pennsylvania county where Longwell grew up, Trump increased the Republican vote share from 2012 to 2024 by almost 6,000 votes (about a 45% increase). What drew voters, particularly ones who were disengaged politically, to his message?

Longwell's concise volume (full title: "How to Eat an Elephant One Voter at a Time") is sprinkled with voter commentary on every hot button political issue in the age of Trump. Readers of a liberal persuasion might need to read it in small doses—so much voter opining isn't always easy to stomach. But Longwell uses the patterns she's noticed in her groups over the last decade to construct a few key ideas that Democrats should study as they try to regain political power.

Fear and anger

Communication is a theme that Longwell returns to throughout the book. She draws on the wisdom of one of her ruthless former bosses when explaining "FLAGS" as a tried and true political communication strategy (fear, love, anger, greed, sympathy). She notes that fear and anger are the most potent of these, and thus the ones that algorithms push into the feeds of media consumers. Americans are increasingly "news receivers" instead of "news seekers," meaning voters' perception of events is increasingly dictated by the algorithm and so skews scared and angry. Trump's style of communication is an excellent fit for our current media environment and this was reflected in focus groups. She further discusses this media reality in chapters on immigration and trans issues.

Anti-heroes and vice-signaling

Outrage over Trump's moral turpitude feels quaint since many public figures these days seem have built their success on being horrible human beings. In a chapter called "Character Doesn't Count," Long explores theories that explain how the Republican Party, which nominated John McCain for President in 2008, has become completely in thrall to one of the most venal and corrupt public officials ever to be elected to high office in the United States. She writes about how focus group participants processed behaviors such as the extortion of Ukraine in 2019 or the January 6th insurrection, and were eventually able to progressively rationalize them:

1. That thing never happened.

2. If it happened, it wasn't bad.

3. If it was bad, Trump wasn't responsible for it.

4. You're damn right Trump did it—and I hope he does it again.

Voters claimed to be indifferent to Trump's morals as long as he could deliver on their priorities. These rationalizations make more sense in an environment of decreasing voter trust in institutions (COVID and the 2020 election seem to be inflection points here). When voters are disgusted by politicians and their government, an "anti-hero" who regularly demonstrates that he has disdain for norms actually looks like a champion for those who feel frustrated or powerless.

In a troubling development, obviously unscrupulous behavior—sometimes called "vice signaling"—is actually attractive to many voters. Longwell describes it as a sign of authenticity, a characteristic that voters now prize most highly in their elected officials.

Character doesn't just not matter—bad character is a marker of authenticity when authenticity is the coin of the political realm. The snake who admits he's a snake is now deemed more trustworthy than the politician who acts—and might actually be—virtuous.

A way forward

Longwell includes a section on how Dems should approach pealing away Trump voters in the midterm elections and beyond. Here are a few words of advice drawn from her years of exchanges with voters:

Inclusivity:

"...Performative inclusivity—the rituals by which Democrats attempt to signal how much they want practical inclusivity—is self-defeating because once you start naming all the groups you do welcome, then people notice the groups you don't say you welcome...You start out trying to add to you coalition, but you wind up restricting it."

Democracy:

"Stop talking about democracy. Start talking about America...A good leader can remind Americans that we are one tribe. They will lean into the one identity that everyone in this country shares: their American identity. Love America. Talk about our shared bonds and shared values. Reject nationalism but promote patriotism. Most Americans love America and want to know that you do, too."

Immigration:

"Not 'open borders' or moral lectures. But:

We'll keep you safe without losing who we are.

We'll restore order without sacrificing decency.

We'll protect American families without demonizing desperate ones."

Trans issues:

"[Activists should]...stop putting pressure on Democratic politicians to take un-popular positions that create barriers to electability. Instead, activists should do the public persuasion work to change hearts and minds on trans issues. Democratic politicians should be focused on the issues that matter to the broadest number of people, and activists should give them space to do so."

"Democrats should bring up the trans sports question on their own. Own it. Point out how Republicans want to have these silly culture-war conversations while you want to talk about Americans struggling to afford groceries."

General advice for Dem politicians:

"Take everything you've learned about being a good politician and throw it in the trash. Instead, focus on relearning how to talk, act, look, and sound like a normal human being."

"Trump, for all his lies, projects authenticity because he says whatever is in his head at any given moment. Democrats don't need to become Trump. But they do need candidates who can speak with that kind of directness—who can look voters in the eye and tell them what they believe without the political-consultant voice kicking in."

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Sarah Longwell is the publisher of The Bulwark and hosts The Focus Group Podcast.